Plan Your FIRE Number (India)
The problem
You want to retire early but don't know how large a corpus you actually need, how to account for India's high inflation, whether your current SIPs will get you there, or how to model the impact of bonuses and lumpsums. This workflow builds a complete FIRE plan from first principles in 25 minutes.
What you'll accomplish
Tools in this workflow
Follow this workflow in sequence to move from question to decision without losing context.
Step-by-step
Why this workflow works
FIRE planning fails when people use a single calculator with an oversimplified monthly investment figure. Real FIRE trajectories have three components that need separate modelling: the regular SIP (grows predictably), lumpsums (timing and amount vary), and step-up rate (reflects income growth and ensures the savings rate keeps pace with lifestyle inflation). This workflow keeps them separate through Steps 1–3, then combines them in the FIRE Calculator (Step 4) to check against the corpus target. The sequence matters — you need to know your total projected corpus before you can confirm whether it meets your FIRE number. The FIRE Calculator also stress-tests the plan against different withdrawal rates and inflation scenarios, which a single SIP calculator cannot do.
Frequently asked questions
What is the 4% rule and does it apply in India?
The 4% rule (from William Bengen's 1994 research) states that withdrawing 4% of your retirement corpus annually, adjusted for inflation, has historically sustained a 30-year retirement in US markets. In India, most FIRE planners use a more conservative 3–3.5% withdrawal rate because: (a) Indian inflation is structurally higher (CPI averages 5–6% vs US 2–3%), (b) Indian equity market history is shorter and more volatile, and (c) early retirement in India means potentially 40–50 years of corpus dependency — much longer than the 30 years the 4% rule was designed for. At 3% withdrawal, multiply your annual expenses by 33.3 to get your FIRE corpus.
How much corpus do I need to retire at 45 in India?
Depends on your annual expenses at retirement and withdrawal rate. Example: If your monthly expenses at 45 are ₹80,000 (₹9.6L/year) and you use a 3% withdrawal rate: corpus needed = ₹9.6L ÷ 0.03 = ₹3.2 crore. At 3.5% withdrawal: ₹2.74 crore. These figures are in today's rupees — if you're planning 15 years ahead, your ₹80,000/month in 2025 rupees becomes approximately ₹1.87 lakh/month in 2040 rupees at 6% inflation. The inflated expense figure should be used in the FIRE calculation. Starting monthly SIP needed to build ₹3.2 crore in 15 years at 12% CAGR: approximately ₹80,000–85,000/month (or lower with step-ups and lumpsums).
What return rate should I assume for equity SIPs in India?
For long-term planning (10+ years): Nifty 50 index funds have delivered approximately 11–12% CAGR over the past 20 years. Large-cap active funds: 10–13% CAGR on average, with significant variance. Mid/small-cap funds: 12–16% CAGR historically, but with much higher volatility and drawdowns. For conservative FIRE planning: use 10% for the corpus building phase. For more aggressive planning with high equity allocation and 15+ year horizon: 12% is defensible. Never use above 15% in a retirement projection — it systematically underestimates the corpus required.
How does inflation affect my FIRE corpus target in India?
Inflation is the biggest FIRE planning variable in India. At 6% annual inflation: expenses double every 12 years. If you plan to retire in 20 years on ₹1 lakh/month (today's money), you'll actually need ₹3.2 lakh/month in 2045 rupees to maintain the same lifestyle. This means your corpus must be sized for ₹3.2L/month, not ₹1L/month. The FIRE corpus grows with inflation — so if your corpus earns 12% and inflation is 6%, your real return is 6%, which is the sustainable withdrawal rate over time. Healthcare inflation in India runs at 10–12% annually — a separate health corpus or comprehensive health insurance is essential.
Should I invest in NPS or equity SIP for FIRE in India?
For FIRE specifically: equity SIPs in mutual funds are more flexible than NPS, which locks funds until age 60 (with partial withdrawal only after 3 years and conditions). If you plan to retire at 45, locking 15% of your savings in NPS creates a 15-year accessibility gap. However, NPS has a tax advantage: employer NPS contribution (up to 10% of Basic) is deductible under Section 80CCD(2) in both regimes — this is on top of the ₹1.5L 80C limit. A balanced approach: maximise employer NPS contribution for the tax benefit, build the primary FIRE corpus in equity mutual funds for flexibility, and treat NPS as a supplementary retirement income source after 60.